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May 05, 2023

How long will Ja Morant be suspended? Searching for Adam Silver clues

It was either diabolical or dumb given the stated objective, even though NBA

It was either diabolical or dumb given the stated objective, even though NBA commissioner Adam Silver likely intended it to be neither.

He didn't want to distract from the NBA Finals at his news conference last Thursday. It wouldn't be fair to the Denver Nuggets or Miami Heat. That's what he said when asked about Ja Morant and the potential punishment that lingers over the immediate future of the Memphis Grizzlies.

But that's exactly what he did.

Morant, and the suspension he's likely to face, made Game 1 an afterthought.

It (rightfully) reinforced Morant is likely facing significant discipline. But it's the definition of significant that remains in dispute. My guess from the beginning has been a 20-game suspension. Long enough that Morant will be ineligible for end-of-season awards under the NBA's new collective bargaining agreement but not so long that it seems Morant is being punished as if he committed an actual crime.

But it's just a guess, and Silver indicated we won't know for sure until the NBA Finals are complete. So with that in mind, let's dissect five statements made by Silver in hopes of finding some clues.

"We look at both the history of prior acts, but then we look at the individual player's history as well, and the seriousness, of course, of the conduct. So those are all things that get factored. It's not an exact science. It comes down to judgment at the end of the day on the part of me and my colleagues in the league office."

Why is this important? Because it's confirmation Morant's punishment won't be based solely on this latest Instagram Live stunt. It could be a culmination of all the unfortunate events Morant has been involved in over the past year, and which of those events will be considered is at the discretion of Silver and the league office.

"In terms of the timing, we’ve uncovered a fair amount of additional information."

This is revelation that immediately stuck out when Silver said it. The presumption has been this new information is bad for Morant, and it might be. But it could also simply be that Silver now has a more complete picture (i.e. Morant's side of the story) from last month's incident. Whatever the case, it's perhaps the most significant tidbit offered by Silver.

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"We probably could have brought it to a head now, but we made the decision – and I believe the players’ association agrees with us – that it would be unfair to these players and these teams in the middle of the series to announce the results of that investigation."

As mentioned earlier, if his mission was to do what's in the best interests of the Nuggets and Heat, well this column should suffice as proof of that not working. But what's more interesting is the mention of the NBPA. It's already involved in the process, even prior to a formal announcement of a suspension. That feels like good news for Morant.

A suspension longer than 25 or 30 games would be precedent-setting for a player who hasn't been charged with a crime and the guess here is the NBPA won't allow that to happen without a fight. And, from what Silver is saying, it doesn't appear he's in a fight at the moment.

"He seems to be a fine young man, in terms of my dealings with him. I think he's clearly made some mistakes, but he's young and I’m hoping now, once we conclude,at the end of our process what the appropriate discipline is, that it's not just about the discipline. It's about now what we, the players association, his team and the people around him are going to do to create better circumstances going forward. That's ultimately what's most important here."

Silver doesn't sound angry at Morant. Just disappointed. It creates the impression that rehabilitation, not vindictiveness, is on his mind, despite being betrayed by Morant after the first Instagram Live incident. It also gets at the larger goal here, one that's easy to forget in the midst of analysts suggesting Morant might have to leave Memphis or might not even be alive in five years.

(Yes, ESPN's First Take was that dramatic on Friday.)

For Morant to come out of this mess successfully, he has to figure out how to live his life under the spotlight in a manner in which he's comfortable. He can't just go through the motions to appease the NBA like he did the first time.

"I’m not going to answer that yet. Let's wait and see what the conclusion is of our investigation."

This is actually the last Morant-related answer from Silver's press conference. He was asked directly whether he expected Morant to miss the beginning of next season. He can, it appears, give a non-answer answer if he wants to give one.

You can reach Commercial Appeal columnist Mark Giannotto via email at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter:@mgiannotto